Manchester City Face £500m Financial Disaster If Relegated to the Championship

According to British media outlet iNews, Manchester City could face a financial “disaster” if they are expelled from the Premier League for breaching Financial Fair Play (FFP) regulations.

Manchester City, who continue to insist on their innocence, are currently awaiting the outcome of the disciplinary process, while some rival clubs have called for the club to be relegated. Financial modelling suggests that if Manchester City were relegated to the Championship, their annual revenue could fall by more than £500 million.

The i Paper, together with football finance expert Kieran Maguire, has examined the details behind the potential £500 million loss and explored what could happen if Manchester City’s star players were to remain at the club and play in the Championship.

According to the latest financial accounts for the year ending June 30, 2025, Manchester City generated £278.6 million in broadcasting revenue during the 2024-25 season. If they were relegated to the Championship next season, that figure could plunge to around £50 million, even after taking parachute payments into account.

The only major variable would be whether Manchester City could win the Champions League and thereby secure qualification for the competition the following season, along with the associated broadcasting income. If they failed to win the Champions League, however, the club's broadcasting revenue could fall by approximately £225 million.

Matchday revenue would also be affected. Manchester City generated £75.1 million from matchdays in the 2024-25 season, but that figure could decline by between £30 million and £40 million following relegation to the Championship.

“Manchester City fans will still turn up and support the team. That isn't the problem. We saw the same thing when West Ham United were relegated — the hardcore supporters always remain,” Maguire said.

“But the problem for Manchester City is that they would no longer be able to sell hospitality boxes, VIP experiences and ‘Players’ Tunnel Club’ tickets at anything close to their current prices. You cannot expect the same level of revenue when hosting Swansea at home as you would when playing Liverpool, Manchester United or Arsenal.”

The biggest potential blow would come from commercial revenue, although this is also the area surrounded by the greatest uncertainty.

The independent commission previously ruled that between 2009 and 2018, Manchester City's accounts recorded as much as £949.94 million in sponsorship revenue, while the actual amount paid was only £119.25 million.

Since 2018, Manchester City's annual commercial revenue has continued to grow, reaching £340.4 million in the 2024-25 season.

The key question now is: if Manchester City lose their appeal and are excluded from both the Premier League and European competition, which sponsors would still be willing to stand by the club?

“For example, would Etihad Airways still be willing to pay Manchester City sponsorship fees of the same size while they are in the Championship? That is probably something you would have to ask them,” Maguire said.

“That would be the major source of losses. I would also expect other partners to withdraw their investment.”

The average Championship club generates only around £10 million to £20 million in commercial revenue. Manchester City would obviously be an exception given their size and global profile, but even when Leeds United were in the Championship, generating £30 million in commercial income was considered an excellent result.

If Manchester City's commercial revenue fell by £300 million, their overall revenue loss could approach £600 million.

Even using the more conservative estimate of a £500 million loss, Manchester City would still retain more than £100 million in commercial revenue — between five and ten times the Championship average.

Maguire added: “However you look at it, once you add these figures together, Manchester City's revenue would suffer an ‘emergency stop’.”

Manchester City have already undergone significant changes this summer, with players including Rodri, Bernardo Silva and John Stones reportedly leaving alongside manager Pep Guardiola.

As a result, according to Maguire's ValuBall calculations, Manchester City's £408.4 million wage bill from the 2024-25 season is likely to have already fallen, although probably not by a huge amount.

If Manchester City were relegated to the Championship, the enormous decline in revenue would mean the club would have to undergo another major squad overhaul next summer in order to comply with the Championship's Squad Cost Rules (SCR).

The SCR regulations allow Championship clubs to spend up to 85% of their permitted revenue on player and coaching costs.

“Unless there is a massive player exodus, this would be an FFP disaster,” Maguire said.

The average Championship club has a wage bill of only around £37 million. During the 2024-25 season, only three Championship clubs had wage bills above £50 million: Leeds United, Burnley and Sunderland, with Leeds leading the way at £102.7 million.

Erling Haaland alone earns an estimated £27 million per year, based on his reported weekly salary of £525,000.

If that figure is combined with the next five highest-paid Manchester City players listed in the original report — Enzo Fernández (£18 million), Phil Foden (£16 million), Jérémy Doku (£15 million), Gianluigi Donnarumma (£14 million) and Marc Guéhi (£14 million) — the combined wages of those six players would already exceed Leeds United's entire wage bill.

In simple terms, if those six players remained at Manchester City on their current salaries, the club would need to generate more than £120 million in revenue just to keep its wage-to-revenue ratio within the Championship's 85% SCR limit.

Relegation clauses could have eased some of the pressure on Manchester City. However, according to The Athletic journalist David Ornstein, Manchester City's player contracts do not contain such clauses.

That is because the club has consistently maintained its innocence and “never considered the possibility of a day when relegation could happen.”

Typically, relegation clauses can reduce players' salaries by 50% or even as much as 90%. If Manchester City were genuinely relegated to the Championship next season and their stars were willing to stay, the club could therefore be forced to renegotiate contracts and cut wages.

Such a scenario could reveal which players are truly willing to fight for the badge and which are primarily motivated by their salaries.

For now, however, this remains a hypothetical scenario. Discussions surrounding the possibility are likely to continue. During Norway's match against Portugal last weekend, Haaland and Rúben Dias appeared to be discussing the situation privately. Until an official punishment is announced, whispers and speculation are only likely to intensify.

And any punishment would inevitably be followed by a lengthy appeal process. As a result, it could take several years before the final outcome is determined.

One thing, however, is certain: if the final, irreversible ruling requires Manchester City to leave the Premier League for at least one season, the club will face an entirely new and potentially devastating financial battle.